A lot of people are wondering what the Democrats are doing. The GOP clearly is still supporting President Trump and in order to remove the President, 20, yes, 20, out of 53 Republican Senators (more than one third) have to vote against him.
That is not going to happen. Not unless a real surprise comes forth. Maybe if Rudy or Mulvaney or someone similar turns on Trump, admitting their crimes.
So why are the Democrats doing this? To take the Senate back.
There is more then enough evidence to convict President Trump of multiple crimes - not just extorting/bribing (a technical legal distinction, and both require what is known as 'quid pro quo') the Ukrainians into an investigation of Biden's son.
Worse, most of the population has already realized this. Look at polls based on impeachment (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/)
But don't look at the Democrats, they don't matter. Nor do the Republicans matter. What matters are the Independents. Honestly, even they don't matter - not unless they are in the swing states. It doesn't matter what the people in Utah and California think, their states are solidly behind one party.
But there are 18 Senate seats up for election in swing states.(https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/)
Twelve of those seats are currently held by a Republican. Two of them are not running for re-election. They are retiring, most probably because they have too much honor and ethics to stay in Donald Trump's Republican party.
If the ten that are running again vote to remove Trump from office, that would piss off their base. They likely will lose without their base and still not be enough to remove Trump. If they vote not to remove Trump it will piss of the majority of independents and 'crossover' democrats (People that vote for a Democrat for President but vote Republican in local elections.) Once forced to vote, they are in a no-win situation.
They will have a much harder time staying in office this November. If (as I suspect) we do not remove Trump from office, this will create enough outrage to help keep those six Democratic Senators in Swing States in office. Which will push the independents to vote democratic. Yes it will enliven both bases, but they cancel each other out.
Which means of the 45 Democrat Senators + 2 Independents vs 53 Republican Senators could become 55 Democrats + 2 Independents vs 43 Republican Senators.
Some people are saying a failed Impeachment helps the President's part, mainly because they looked at Clinton. But That was a failed impeachment on sex, something most Americans dismissed as purely a partisan attack. While the GOP has pushed hard on this idea, that does not mean they have convinced the country. Yes, their base believes it, but that does not matter. What matters is have they convinced the independents and the crossover Democrats that it was a partisan attack.
Their arguments have been really bad, so I believe they have failed to do this. They tried Cohn/Trump's tactics of deny, deny, then ADMIT but claim it is not wrong. That works with the base, not the country as a whole. Which means this failed impeachment will help Democrats, not the GOP.
Yeah, the GOP will likely win some of the swing seats. We may not get it all, but I bet the DNC ends up with at least 51 Democrats in the Senate, on top of the two independents.
Giving the Democrat President (whoever he or she is) effective control over the country once again.
That is not going to happen. Not unless a real surprise comes forth. Maybe if Rudy or Mulvaney or someone similar turns on Trump, admitting their crimes.
So why are the Democrats doing this? To take the Senate back.
There is more then enough evidence to convict President Trump of multiple crimes - not just extorting/bribing (a technical legal distinction, and both require what is known as 'quid pro quo') the Ukrainians into an investigation of Biden's son.
Worse, most of the population has already realized this. Look at polls based on impeachment (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/)
But don't look at the Democrats, they don't matter. Nor do the Republicans matter. What matters are the Independents. Honestly, even they don't matter - not unless they are in the swing states. It doesn't matter what the people in Utah and California think, their states are solidly behind one party.
But there are 18 Senate seats up for election in swing states.(https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/)
Twelve of those seats are currently held by a Republican. Two of them are not running for re-election. They are retiring, most probably because they have too much honor and ethics to stay in Donald Trump's Republican party.
If the ten that are running again vote to remove Trump from office, that would piss off their base. They likely will lose without their base and still not be enough to remove Trump. If they vote not to remove Trump it will piss of the majority of independents and 'crossover' democrats (People that vote for a Democrat for President but vote Republican in local elections.) Once forced to vote, they are in a no-win situation.
They will have a much harder time staying in office this November. If (as I suspect) we do not remove Trump from office, this will create enough outrage to help keep those six Democratic Senators in Swing States in office. Which will push the independents to vote democratic. Yes it will enliven both bases, but they cancel each other out.
Which means of the 45 Democrat Senators + 2 Independents vs 53 Republican Senators could become 55 Democrats + 2 Independents vs 43 Republican Senators.
Some people are saying a failed Impeachment helps the President's part, mainly because they looked at Clinton. But That was a failed impeachment on sex, something most Americans dismissed as purely a partisan attack. While the GOP has pushed hard on this idea, that does not mean they have convinced the country. Yes, their base believes it, but that does not matter. What matters is have they convinced the independents and the crossover Democrats that it was a partisan attack.
Their arguments have been really bad, so I believe they have failed to do this. They tried Cohn/Trump's tactics of deny, deny, then ADMIT but claim it is not wrong. That works with the base, not the country as a whole. Which means this failed impeachment will help Democrats, not the GOP.
Yeah, the GOP will likely win some of the swing seats. We may not get it all, but I bet the DNC ends up with at least 51 Democrats in the Senate, on top of the two independents.
Giving the Democrat President (whoever he or she is) effective control over the country once again.
