First, several republicans (Bachmann, the queen of lies, in particular) have mentioned that Obama is in a worse position than any other president. They say he has lower approval ratings than any other president. It is not surprising that republicans think that because most likely, Obama has the lowest approval ratings among REPUBLICANS than any other Democrat president. They talk to their friends and they all hate him, so they think everyone hates him.
But is wrong. His approval rating is at 40%, as compared to Clinton's low of 37% (in his first term) Reagan's low of 35% (again in his first term), and Truman.
They continue to think that the Recession will kill Obama's second term.
Second, the major way the Recession has affected people is unemployment. But first of all unemployed people vote DEMOCRAT. They don't believe the GOP when they say they are protecting Job Creators, they believe the GOP is protecting rich people and destroying the social programs that the unemployed people depend on.
Thirdly, blacks have a much higher unemployment rate than among whites people. Black people are not going to vote Republican, even if Cain wins the primary (something very unlikely). In addition, they are not going to stay home - they are going to go out and vote for Obama.
Neither are gays going to forget the man that ended "Don't Ask Don't Tell".
Once again, in order to win, you need to get your base to vote, the independents to vote for you, and your opponents base to stay home.
High unemployment, particularly among blacks, is NOT going to get Democrats to stay home. Nor will it get unemployed independents to vote Republican. The best the GOP can hope for is that white unemployed independents will stay home.
Talk about "Job Creators" is not convincing. It doesn't work on independents - all it does is assuage the conscience of Republicans.
The Republicans have worked hard to ensure that their own base will show up, because they know for a fact that the Democrat's base will also show up. This election is going to come down to the independents, not the bases.
Independents think the Tea Party is a joke. They think the Republicans have been taken over by it. Most independents that are unemployed will vote Democrat (or stay home). The more power the Tea Party exhibits, the larger an effect this will cause.
Employed independents will not be concerned about fixing the economy. The republicans hope to get their votes by promising low taxes. But the more people talk about a bad economy (which the Republicans keep talking about), the harder it is to make that promise.
In addition, usually the GOP tries for the "We will protect you from the big bad world". But the T Party has destroyed that motif. It costs money and the GOP has bowed to pressure to stop spending. Worse, Obama caught and killed Bin Laden, ended the Iraq war AND managed to help out Libya without an army on the ground (sailors off shore are not as big a deal - they are always off shore). So the GOP has had to give up their main counter and try some new ideas.
I can't see those new ideas working. The claim of "we promise to be more fiscal responsible, and this time we REALLY mean it even though we didn't the last time" just doesn't cut it.
The Democrat's promise of "We won't let you starve or die from a paper cut" is a much better bit of propaganda.
Romney is the only GOP candidate with a chance of beating Obama, and he won't make it.