I have no inner knowledge of the Trump Campaign, but I suspect I have figured out why he hasn't bought any TV ads.
I predict he won't buy any for all of July and August.
The reason is simple - it's too early.
Yes, politicians have traditionally come out blazing. But honestly we all know that political polls this early don't matter. People don't make up their mind yet. You can spend millions every month, get good polls, then lose it all in the last month.
The election is Tuesday, November 8th. That is more than 100 days away. A lot happens in 100 days. People forget about the current scandals and new ones happen. People die. People turn 18.
I think Trump looked at that fact and said "Hell, I can play the media via twitter and press releases, I don't need any advertisements yet." Throw in a dash of PAC spending and all he wants to do is wait.
Till September comes along. Sometime in September, expect to see a fusillade of pro-Trump ads. Hopefully Hillary will still have enough cash to fight back.
That's my theory and I am sticking by it.
I predict he won't buy any for all of July and August.
The reason is simple - it's too early.
Yes, politicians have traditionally come out blazing. But honestly we all know that political polls this early don't matter. People don't make up their mind yet. You can spend millions every month, get good polls, then lose it all in the last month.
The election is Tuesday, November 8th. That is more than 100 days away. A lot happens in 100 days. People forget about the current scandals and new ones happen. People die. People turn 18.
I think Trump looked at that fact and said "Hell, I can play the media via twitter and press releases, I don't need any advertisements yet." Throw in a dash of PAC spending and all he wants to do is wait.
Till September comes along. Sometime in September, expect to see a fusillade of pro-Trump ads. Hopefully Hillary will still have enough cash to fight back.
That's my theory and I am sticking by it.
Note, The New York Times just published an article with a chart showing political opinions not 'setting' until about 90 days from the election. That Would be August 10th, not September, so I was wrong about the details, if not the specifics.
ReplyDeleteHopefully Donald will make the same mistake I made.
Left off the link. The NYT story is here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/23/upshot/were-about-to-enter-a-period-of-polling-volatility.html