Saturday, December 31, 2011

2016 Presidential Candidates: DNC

Yeah, I know, we haven't done the 2012 elections yet.  But I am pretty Obama is going to win, and I think the GOP candidates are not very interesting.  More interesting to talk about who are going to be the 2016 candidates.

On the Democrat side, Biden and Clinton are the old dogs. We like VP's, they already look presidential and have contacts.   But he will be 74.  If he gets elected and re-elected, and doesn't die, he would leave office at 82.  Hillary Clinton almost became the Democratic Nominee (and probably would have beat McCain if he made the same stupid comments about the economy).  But she is only 5 years young at 69.  Which explains why she has said she won't run again.   I don't think she is going to change her mind.

Frankly, neither of these look likely.  Usually presidential candidates come from popular Governors.  They have the support of their entire state and have executive experience, that congressman and senators lack.   But Senators and Representatives also run.   In addition, democrats don't like to pick North Eastern democrats, as southerns are more likely to vote for a liberal if he sounds and thinks like them.   Besides the DNC likes moderates (unlike the GOP).

So here are five good choices for the Democratic Nominee in 2016.  I bet at least two of them will run, if not win:

Jack Markell
Highly popular jewish governor of Delaware.  Can a jewish man win the Presidency? Well, not that long ago, we thought a black man couldn't win.  On the other hand, there are a lot more black voters than jewish ones.  He has a deficit fighting, pro education history.  Delaware is a small state (only 3 electoral votes), but it may be just south enough not to be tainted as "North East".  

John Hickenlooper
Colorado's governor.  He is a Quaker that opposed Colorado's pro-marijuana public referendum, but abided by it when it passed.  Colorado's 9 electoral votes was won by Obama, but also by Bush.  Their votes are definitely up for grab. 

Sherrod Brown
Democrat Senator of Ohio.   Defeated a Republican Incumbent for Senate - in a big (20 electoral votes) swing state.

Kay Hagan
Female Senator from North Carolina.  Defeat a female incumbent Republican Senator. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes - votes that Bush won.

Claire McCaskill
Female Senator from Missouri.  Defeated a male incumbent Republican Senator - in a tight race.  Missouri has 10 electoral votes - and the state voted for McCain in 2008 and for Bush.  She may be the only way the Democrats could win Missouri - although it is only a medium sized set of votes.

These are the 5 most interesting candidates I know of.   I would expect that at least one of the women will run in the primary, if not win it, and at least two of these people should try for the nomination.

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