Monday, January 28, 2013

Ten Years from Now

Recently a complete lunatic that failed to predict the turnout and results of the 2012 election the actual day it happened (after studying the polls for years), came out with a ridiculous set of 10 year predictions.   Well, if any idiot can do it, this one can too!

Here are my predictions about the GOP:

First, over the next ten years the Republican party will slowly lose it's hold on local and congressional offices.  People age and they have seriously pissed off the younger generation, immigrants, and the demographics that are growing.

This will lead the Democratic party to grow complacent.  They will make mistakes and a new leader will arise in the GOP.

He will revolutionize them and re-invigorate the GOP.  He will still be the second place party, but they will pick up some momentum.  It might be a familiar name (Christie, Rubio, Jindal etc.), or it could be someone new.

I am not sure exactly what he will do, but I can tell you they will definitely abandon certain key GOP ideas. They will keep pro-life, and remain conservative.  But they will become a huge pro-latino party.  It's the only way they can retain any relevance.  That means immigration reform, led by the GOP.  Good bye racism, hello equality.

They will also have to give up the anti-gay agenda.   They will still be anti-gay, just not as openly.   They will never become pro-gay, but frankly they have lost the anti-gay battle, it's just a matter of time.  As for abortion, they will continue to press their anti-abortion agenda, winning in the state legislates while repeatedly losing in the courts, having their ridiculous anti-abortion laws overturned over time.

Guns - whatever happens this year will remain in place for the next ten.   If we can't get any changes now, we will not do so for a generation.  If we do, the NRA will use whatever gains done now as an excuse to stop more.

Taxes - the current GOP will continue with it's ridiculous plan of "cut the deficit while also cutting taxes."  But honestly, without total control this is meaningless.  Without the power to actually pass laws, it's just a way to wage a two-front war.  If they actually obtained power and achieve the Presidency (unlikely, but possible), then they would practically abandon one of those ideals while maintaining lip service.

Most likely they would abandon the idea of cutting taxes and let them go up.  Because they are smart enough to realize that if they cut services enough to affect the deficit without raising taxes their presidency would become one term.  Because the only ways to that would be radical changes in the social services that people LOVE or the military - which they are paranoid enough to keep.

Drugs are a strange issue.  I suspect that within ten years there will be some kind of law passed giving the states the right to legalize marijuana.  If the GOP is smart they will push this idea to the forefront, in part as a way to avoid legalizing it nationally.   If they are stupid, they will let the Democrats take this winning idea and run with it.  If they are REALLY stupid they will pull an ObamaCare - let a GOP governor create the idea, then abandon it when the Democrats agree.

If they are smart, the GOP will pick up the battles the Democrats have abandoned - specifically pro-web user rights.  If they bring just a dash of anti-Facebook to their platform, they can recruit some of the liberals that are pro-privacy liberals.

Who will this new wunder-kin Republican be?   They need either a northern republican like Chris Christie, or a non-white southern republican, like Rubio or Jindal  Better yet, a northern non-white republican - Colin Powell would make a great one.  Or a female version of him.

If you are a white southern male republican, you have no chance to win the Presidency.   Sorry Perry, Santorum, etc.  You never had a chance and you never will.  Not in the current demographics.

The Tea Party will slowly lose relevance, they are a distraction that inhibits the GOP on the national stage, while barely keeping them alive in the local elections.   The Libertarian/Ron Paul will slowly gain relevance at the cost of the Tea Party.  But they will not achieve real power.  They will never pick the President - if they win the primary, they would lose the general election.

The next Republican GOP President will not come from the existing GOP power structure, it will create a new one.  Rubio, Jindal or Christie could do it - but only by kicking the hell out of Fox first.  Because honestly, Fox is holding the GOP back.

Fox News is force for the status quo.  They  maintain the base, but at the same time retard growth.   A real GOP leadership would have to be be capable of getting them to shut the hell up.   They need someone that can kick Glenn Beck, or his equivalent off the air, not have their campaign destroyed by it.

Louisiana Governor 'Bobby' Jindal (his first name is too ethnic for Republicans to vote for), and Chris Christie have already made the first step in yelling at the current GOP.  But it's not too late for Rubio (or someone new) to step in and really take control.

Because the first step to taking control of the GOP is to crush their free independence, just like any stereotypical Drill Sergeant in any good army movie.  Then he can build them back up - in his new political image.

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