Wednesday, January 2, 2013

The Two GOP's

It is increasingly clear that the GOP has unofficially split into two parties.  The Tea Party and the Skilled GOP.

The Tea Party knows what it wants.  They have no idea how to get it.  They have no idea that democracy is all about compromise. They also have no idea that a lot of what they want is actually impossible.  They have been fed lies by FOX and the Skilled GOP and believe them.

The Skilled GOP is very different.   They no exactly how things work and how to get things done.  They value compromise.  They remember all the lies they told (and convinced Fox to tell).   The problem is, most of the world right blames them for everything.  They failed on so many levels no one trusts them.  Not the traditional GOP base, not the T Party, and definitely not the Democrats.

So what can they do?  What is their path forward?

They need a leader.  A real one.

Like Reagan.  Or Clinton.  Or Obama.  All three of those men grabbed hold of the reigns and marched them in on direction.   Among other things leaders make decisions about which goals to emphasize and which to put off for another day.  Which is the exact thing the GOP needs - they keep trying to go in two different directions.

So lets talk a bit about which direction they can go.

Deficit Reduction or Tax Reduction.  There are two entirely different themes, no one seriously thinks you can do both.    Pick one and make it your priority.  You can NOT push for both.  It's like trying to build a device that flies in the air and also swims down to the depths of the ocean.

Here there are two paths - 'regulate it to a minimum in as many states as possible' and 'quietly accept the current status quo.'  Let's be honest hear.  The majority of the country considers it to be legal and just. The Supreme Court is on our side, and won't change for the next 4 years - and honestly probably not ever.  The far right never likes to admit it, but most of the country dis-agrees with them on this issue.  The only way they win is on local votes and even then only because most of the people are not energized.  When you talk about abortion, the democrats win national votes.  Every single time the right opens their mouth about abortion, they convince one more independent to turn liberal.

They realize they are a party loved by racists.  As such, they actively try to prevent immigration in general, and Hispanic immigration in particular.  The problem is that while most of the GOP is anti-immigration, the far majority of the country is pro immigration.  Worse, the GOP has consistently used anti-immigration as an excuse for outright illegal, racist discrimination.  From ignoring rape accusations by hispanic women, to calling children whose parents broke the law criminals, to cutting funding for Hispanic books.   They lost votes from this and they know they lost votes. They have given up on the black vote, the Asian vote, the Jewish vote.  They can't give up on the Hispanic vote.  They need to not just  stop blocking immigration reform, they need to cave entirely and end the discussion.

This is one area where they can keep their prejudice.   Yes, they are losing ground on this issue, and will continue to do so.  But honestly, their hatred has made such an enemy that even if they turned around today, it would not matter.  The Republicans won't win the majority of Gays votes for the next ten or twenty years even if the GOP ended their discrimination today.  More importantly, gays, unlike Hispanic and Black, do not make up the majority of any congressional district that is not already super-liberal.  The very dispersed, everywhere nature of homosexuality dilutes it's political power. 


Here again they need to pick one direction.  They can either go for the strong nationalistic super-power of the post World War II times, or the isolationism of the pre war politics.  But trying for both makes gets you nowhere.  Honestly, if they were to move towards isolationism, with a 10% reduction in the military, (either using the savings to cut taxes or cut the deficit - their choice), they could win back quite a lot of independents.  Or they could stop talking about money and insist on greater military spending to 'help the economy' and make the world s safer place.

The 'denial' strategy was always a short term tactic.  It can't win, as times goes by it becomes clearer and clearer that the world is warming, in large part due to man's behavior.  Every day it becomes more and more obvious that pollution is affecting the weather.   They need a new lie, or as they prefer to call it, a new narrative

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