Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Treasonous Republicans have Failed.

I have repeatedly talked about treasonous Republican plans to rig electoral voting systems.

The good news is that those plans have failed.  We have defeated the greatest internal threat to Democracy in my generation.

I am not exaggerating.  In the past 40 years, no one else has actively attempted to abandon the basic principle of democracy:  "most votes wins". 

Note, they are still trying to rig votes, but have listened to reason and are not trying to move from Democracy to Oligarchy.

Specifically, what they are doing is trying to switch from "majority wins all votes" (also called Winner Take All) to proportionate voting in the liberal states that have republican state majorities.  All this of course while keeping "majority wins all votes" for the conservative states.  (source)

This is not a big concern.  Yes, it is cheating.  Yes, it is unfair.  But the unfairness is really the actions of the winner take all states.  The system they propose, if used in all states, would in fact be fairer then the current one.    Not as fair as moving to the straight national public vote, but fairer than the current version.

The election rigging is caused not by their change but by the systematic change of just the Left and not the Right states.

But their attempts at election rigging are doomed to failure.

Their system depends on holding state majorities via gerrymandering,  whose effect slowly vanishes, as the gerrymandering effect slowly decreases over time.

Worse, the more they depend on gerrymandering, the more they put forth radical candidates, the more they turn away the general population as opposed to gaining ground.  The GOP is in a state of decline, being reinforced by their own actions.   Eventually they will lose the state houses.

But even if they don't lose the state houses, it still can't beat the Democrat's Presidential candidates, assuming we put forth a half way decent one.  Why?  Because the GOP is in a state of decline being reinforced by their own actions.

In the last presidential election, Obama, during a recession, won every single state that he could have, except for North Carolina (see my earlier post here).    Any state that was not a dyed in the wool, shoot the liberals, conservative state, the Democrats won.

Because the GOP is losing so badly, no minor change in the electoral college is going to help them out.  They lost by 126 electoral votes.  That means they need to change 63 electoral votes to win an election.  Picking up a few extra votes from states they lose by just a little won't help them out.

In order to gain enough votes, they need to win the swing states.  <b>Guess which states they are trying to change to proportionate voting?</b>   Yes, those very same swing states.

The GOP is envisioning a world that works almost exactly like the last election - with the GOP doing just a little bit better and having proportional votes from the last few states they lost push them over the edge.

So lets envision a 2012 world where things were a bit closer.   That is , if the GOP had won Ohio and Florida  They still would lose to Obama.  

Then lets say that the next three states - Pennsylvania (20), Colorado (9) and Virgina (13) were all super close.  Not counting those states, the Democrats have 243 electoral votes.  To win we need 270.

Pennsylvania is the main state considering going proportionate, but Virginia might as well (as they were the state most seriously contemplating treasonous district based voting).

The GOP is fantasizing about losing Colorado (democrats have 252), winning Virginia, then losing Pennsylvania but getting a minority share of Pennsylvania's vote.  That would leave the Democrats with 252+11=263 votes, and the Republicans win the Presidency!  Cue the GOP celebration.  If Pennsylvania was still a winner take all then 252+20=272 and the Democrats win.

But look at what happens if Virginia ALSO went proportionate.  That would give the Democrats 252 +11 +6 = 269 votes, it's a tie (and the the House decides).   We won't know what the House is in 2016 - the Democrats could very well in it.   Unless of course, the Democrats, seeing the situation in Pennsylvania and Virginia, move some PA and VA money to  Ohio and win it.  

But lets say ONLY Pennsylvania goes proportionate.  The Democrats see this and stop spending cash in Pennsylvania, instead put it all in Virginia and win Virginia, but lose Pennsylvania - but still get the proportionate votes.

Now the vote is 252 + Virginia's 13 = 265 + 9 from Pennsylvania = 274, Democrats win - because Pennsylvania went proportionate. Cue the GOP recriminations.

Going proportionate could very well backfire for the GOP.   By itself it is no where near enough to win an election, and the Democrats will shift their efforts to deal with whatever the GOP does.

What's far more important is the actual national votes - specifically in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina.

The way things are going, the GOP will lose all three.

The basic problem for the GOP is not that the Democrats are winning by a small margin in swing states.  Instead it is that the Democrats have far more states firmly under their control and they are BIG states, then the GOP does.  The Republicans won only four with more than 10 electoral votes by a margin of at least 10%.  The Democrats won seven states with more than 10 electoral votes by a margin of over 10%.  The GOP's biggest electoral state is Texas with 38 votes - and if the Liberals get their Hispanic act together, Texas may be in play in 2016.  The Democrats biggest electoral state is California with 55 votes, quickly followed by New York at 29. 

Keep in mind that the Democrats have a secret weapon they can use.   Specifically we can put North Carolina's Kay Hagan on the 2016 ticket - as either President or Vice President.

If the Democrats win North Carolina, then the GOP is extremely unlikely to win the election - it is the most conservative of the swing states. and the only one Obama lost.  If the Democrats put a campaign together that can win North Carolina, they will most likely win every other swing state.  

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