Monday, November 12, 2012

Looking to 2016

As anyone that pays attention knows, the conservatives in America win more land by a huge amount.   They win states that are rural, which usually means large - and empty.  The liberals tend to win the states that are urban.

(Source for this information)

But that's the the big story.  When you look at the margins, a clear pattern emerges.  The pro democrat margin slowly tapers off.   Hawaii was +42.7 for Obama, then Vermont at 35.9.   By the time you get down to Oregon at +10.5, it goes down by around 1%, till you get to Florida which was +0,6 for Obama.

Then comes North Carolina at +2.2% in favor of Romney, jump of over 2.5 points.

In fact, you can pretty much count North Carolina as a 'swing state'.  At only +2.2% pro Obama, a Democrat from North Carolina could probably win the 2016 election by a greater margin than Obama did  (Like Kay Hagan, whom I have previously praised).

But then something strange happens.  No state was +3% for Romney.  or +4%.  Or +5%.  or +6% or +7%.

The next state as Georgia which was +8%.   That's almost a 6% jump.  In effect, all the swing states went to the Obama.  Obama won all but one state of those he had ANY chance at all of winning.

There may be a lot of reasons for this.  The vitriolic the GOP spewed (socialist, death panels, apology tour).  It could be something else,  I don't know for sure.

But there is very clearly a bunch of red conservative states with a total of 191 electoral votes, who are all in the GOP's camp by at least +8%.   But the problem is there no "just a little bit republican states."   All the rest are either moderately Democrat or very Democrat states (again with the possible exception of North Carolina).

The GOP thinks this is a good thing - those 191 votes are a lot like Romney's 47%.  It would take a miracle for a Democrat of win any of them  (with the possible exception of a strong Hispanic candidate stealing Texas and Arizona.).  But that's not true.  You see, the +8% Romney margin for 191 electoral votes is LESS than the +207 electoral votes that were > +8% for Obama.

It's like a Great Wall of Republicans states.  Like the Great Wall of China, the wall doesn't wok one way, it works both ways.  The Great Wall of China didn't just keep the Mongols out, it also kept China from from taking and conquering the Mongols.  Similarly, the GOP cliff doesn't just protect the Republican core states, it also protects the Democrats from the Republicans.

 The lack of moderate republican states means the republicans can't appeal just a little bit to the Democrats.   It radicalizes the GOP, they listen to their people from those states and it makes a moderate much harder for them to swallow.  That's why they ignored Huntsman and went with Romney.

The GOP needs to find a way to appeal to the moderates and liberals states. Romney only won one state that had less than +8% lead.  If Obama had only one state with less than a +8% lead, than Romney would be President Elect.

Forget about the Fiscal Cliff.  The Republican Cliff is the the real problem.   That jump in the voting margins? It's caused by a radical shift in BELIEFS.   The GOP from the red states (except for North Carolina) simply have no idea what the rest of this country believes in.

Without that understanding, they can't win enough electoral votes.

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