Most of the states we already know who is going to win. If anyone thinks Romney is going to win Delaware or New York, they are on drugs. Similarly, Obama has no chance in Utah or Wyoming.
There are however, eight states that are close (less than 3% difference).
Here are the states to watch, in order of who is most likely to vote for Obama, followed by their number of electoral votes, then Obama support, and finally Romney Support.
| Wisconsin |
10
|
50%
|
47%
|
| Nevada |
6
|
50%
|
47%
|
| Ohio |
18
|
48%
|
46%
|
| Iowa |
6
|
49%
|
47%
|
| Virginia |
13
|
49%
|
48%
|
| New Hampshire |
4
|
49%
|
48%
|
| Florida |
29
|
47%
|
48%
|
| Colorado |
9
|
48%
|
49%
|
Minnesota is the next state that Obama has a great lead (5%), while Romney has a (4%) lead in North Carolina and Arizona. They might go another way, but if that happens, then these states will also follow.
These are the states to watch. They account for 95 electoral votes, out of the 270 you need to win.
First, note that if the polls are correct, than Obama should win. He has a large lead in electoral votes of the 'spoken' for states and is also winning the swing states. Granted the lead in the swing states is within the margin of error, but it applies to almost all of them. Ignoring these swing states, Obama has 237 (including Minnesota) and Romney has 206 (including North Carolin and Arizona). That's a 31 point lead in the spoken for states.
Assuming that only these swing states change hands, Obama needs to pick only 33 votes (Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio give him 34) . Note, if he somehow manages to get Virginia, and Iowa but not Ohio, Obama still wins. Or even Virginia and New Hampshire without Ohio or Iowa, he still wins (by a bare 270).
Romney on the other hand needs 64 votes, He has to win almost all of the swing states, and he is losing in all but two. He could however win Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida and Colorado, which would give him 79.
Ohio is the 'tipping point state' - but only assuming no other state changes their relative 'order'. Romney could also win with Wisconsin instead of Ohio. But he can't win with Nevada instead of Ohio. Frankly, if Obama wins, as I predict, then Ohio isn't that important. He should get lots of extra votes.
But for Romney, Ohio is the almost the MINIMUM he needs to win (again assuming current polls have the order of the swing states correct).
So pay attention to these eight states. If Obama wins three or more of them, that pretty much means he wins the election. If Romney wins six or more, then he wins.
Also, Colorado has one extra interesting fact about it. The only reason it says that Romney has the lead by 1% is Rasmussen polls. Without Rasmussen polls, it is a dead heat. If Obama wins Colorado, it will be a pretty strong indictment against Rasmussen, demonstrating that they are in fact biased.
Finally, there is a slight chance of a tie 269 and 269. If Obama wins Wisconsin, Ohio and New Hampshire, but loses all the rest then we get the tie. In this case, the tie goes to the (new) House of Representatives, which means it will almost certainly go to Romney, as in a tie situation, that probably means the GOP retains control of the House. Note the senate picks the VP in that situation, which could be... strange. The really weird part is that Congress need not pick Romney or Obama. They are allowed to pick the third highest electoral vote getter. Granted, that won't happen, (I doubt if a third candidate will get even one vote this election). But it is legal. The Senate must pick from among the top two candidates, no third party victory here.
This is pretty unlikely, as Nevada, and Iowa like Obama more than New Hampshire does. And Virginia likes him as much as New Hampshire does.
Oh, if you want to brush up on the rules for the electors, click here.
P.S. Also don't forget to watch the two Republican Rape Candidates: Missouri (Akin - "legitimate rape") and Indiana (Mourdock - "God intended").
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